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Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $790.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $113.8KEvent: Chiefs vs. Raiders
51.5¢
Chiefs
48.5¢
Raiders
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection60Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority86Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 97%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:23 trades$309.5K tracked35% 🐋source coverage 89%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Chiefs · $68.3K net·8 wallets(3🐋)·$110.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChiefs$62.6K@ 52¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Chiefs SETUP
What the tape says

Chiefs pressure: $61.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$61.2K
6h
+$86.6K
tracked
$309.5K

8 verified profitable wallets: Chiefs · $68.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 97% · priority 86

Since latest accumulation: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Chiefs or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Raiders". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Raiders".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Raiders". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Raiders". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
primm2 linked markets · $50.2K gross
quavoo3 linked markets · $17.6K gross
skembinator2 linked markets · $4.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Chiefs@ 52.0¢2m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Raiders@ 49.0¢2m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Chiefs@ 52.0¢2m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Chiefs@ 52.0¢5m ago
Outcome checks pending

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chiefs; negative values favor Raiders. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hChiefs · $61.2K
6hChiefs · $86.6K
24hChiefs · $85.4K

Chiefs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chiefs price. Raiders fills are converted to the complementary Chiefs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h51.6¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d51.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chiefs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$316.2K
45¢
$13.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRaiders$18.2K@ 48.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYChiefs$41.6K@ 52.0¢
taylorsversion0xb9c7…aade
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYChiefs$41.6K@ 52.0¢
taylorsversion0xb9c7…aade
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYChiefs$41.6K@ 52.0¢
taylorsversion0xb9c7…aade
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYChiefs$23.6K@ 52.0¢
taylorsversion0xb9c7…aade
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYChiefs$41.6K@ 52.0¢
taylorsversion0xb9c7…aade
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYChiefs$62.6K@ 52.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—6 minutes ago
BUYChiefs$17.9K@ 51.0¢
primm0xd38b…5029
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

taylorsversionChiefs$190.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·5 fills
BrotherObamaChiefs$62.6K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Raiders$18.2K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
primmChiefs$17.9K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.