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Spread: Raiders (-3.5)

Sports→American FootballSettlement: ChiefsLiquidity: $128.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $151.7KEvent: Chiefs vs. Raiders
0.0¢
Raiders payout
100.0¢
Chiefs payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Chiefs · $57.1K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$57.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChiefs$54.2K@ 80¢·0x2c33…0563

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Chiefs. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-04 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Raiders" if the Raiders win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chiefs".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Chiefs and Raiders, scheduled for October 4 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Raiders" if the Raiders win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chiefs". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoii2 linked markets · $315.7K gross
0x2c33…05635 linked markets · $200.0K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $166.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Chiefs@ 80.0¢3d ago
15m INVALIDATED -18.0pp1h INVALIDATED -10.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Raiders; negative values favor Chiefs. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hChiefs · $38
6hChiefs · $54.2K
24hChiefs · $77.3K

Raiders price VWAP

Volume-weighted Raiders price. Chiefs fills are converted to the complementary Raiders probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h20.2¢▼ below by 20.2pp
VWAP 7d20.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Raiders price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$20
35¢
$88
30¢
$0
25¢
$89
20¢
$94.5K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$38

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYChiefs$54.2K@ 80.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Chiefs$54.2K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·1 fill
updatefroverChiefs$13.5K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·2 fills
quavooChiefs$10.7K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.