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US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon

● quote 34s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $113.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $430.4KEvent: US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon
99.9¢
Sebastian Gorzny
1.1¢
Raphael Collignon
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection27Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets69Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:126 trades$126.8K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 50 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Raphael Collignon · $51.6K net·12 wallets(3🐋)·$74.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRaphael Collignon$17.5K@ 69¢·ssj3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Raphael Collignon pressure: $34.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$34.3K
6h
−$85.0K
tracked
$126.8K

12 verified profitable wallets: Raphael Collignon · $51.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -37.8pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 50 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Raphael Collignon or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Gorzny and Raphael Collignon in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Gorzny' if Sebastian Gorzny advances against Raphael Collignon. This market will resolve to 'Raphael Collignon' if Raphael Collignon advances against Sebastian Gorzny. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Raphael Collignon2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Raphael Collignon@ 37.9¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +37.9pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Sebastian Gorzny UP 6.2pp · near-book depth $465 → $18 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Sebastian Gorzny; negative values favor Raphael Collignon. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRaphael Collignon · $34.3K
6hRaphael Collignon · $85.0K
24hRaphael Collignon · $89.6K

Sebastian Gorzny price VWAP

Volume-weighted Sebastian Gorzny price. Raphael Collignon fills are converted to the complementary Sebastian Gorzny probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h43.8¢▲ above by 56.1pp
VWAP 7d43.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Sebastian Gorzny price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$25.6K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$344
65¢
$41
60¢
$64
55¢
$138
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$17.1K
35¢
$22.1K
30¢
$18.1K
25¢
$2.1K
20¢
$18.2K
15¢
$14.3K
10¢
$8.5K
5¢
$90
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLSebastian Gorzny$10.5K@ 99.9¢
Brimoz0x565c…878d
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYRaphael Collignon$13.3K@ 56.7¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYRaphael Collignon$10.0K@ 78.7¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYRaphael Collignon$12.7K@ 62.8¢
ssj30x1a95…3a16
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYRaphael Collignon$17.5K@ 68.8¢
ssj30x1a95…3a16
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ssj3Raphael Collignon$30.2K
BUY VWAP 66.2¢·2 fills
0b1feRaphael Collignon$15.0K
BUY VWAP 80.4¢·2 fills
kkookkooRaphael Collignon$13.3K
BUY VWAP 56.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.