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Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles

● quote 16s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $252.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $149.0KEvent: Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
53.5¢
Boston Red Sox
46.5¢
Baltimore Orioles
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:25 trades$64.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Baltimore Orioles · $27.0K net·2 wallets·$27.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBoston Red Sox$15.0K@ 54¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$5
6h
+$427
tracked
$64.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: Baltimore Orioles · $27.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-10 23:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for September 3 at 7:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Boston Red Sox@ 54.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Baltimore Orioles@ 45.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Boston Red Sox; negative values favor Baltimore Orioles. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBaltimore Orioles · $5
6hBoston Red Sox · $427
24hBaltimore Orioles · $11.8K

Boston Red Sox price VWAP

Volume-weighted Boston Red Sox price. Baltimore Orioles fills are converted to the complementary Boston Red Sox probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.5¢
VWAP 24h55.4¢▼ below by 1.9pp
VWAP 7d55.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Boston Red Sox price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$46.4K
50¢
← now
$18.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBoston Red Sox$15.0K@ 54.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

quavooBaltimore Orioles$21.3K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·11 fills
BrotherObamaBoston Red Sox$15.0K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.