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US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Lorenzo Musetti

● quote 6 min ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $248.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $719.4KEvent: US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Lorenzo Musetti
99.9¢
Dane Sweeny
0.1¢
Lorenzo Musetti
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:163 trades$283.9K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Dane Sweeny · $44.0K net·12 wallets(3🐋)·$119.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDane Sweeny$35.1K@ 100¢·alexdave888

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Dane Sweeny pressure: $28.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$28.0K
6h
−$25.1K
tracked
$283.9K

12 verified profitable wallets: Dane Sweeny · $44.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 6 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 26 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 11.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Dane Sweeny or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-09 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Dane Sweeny and Lorenzo Musetti in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dane Sweeny' if Dane Sweeny advances against Lorenzo Musetti. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Dane Sweeny. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Dane Sweeny40m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Dane Sweeny@ 89.0¢58m ago
15m CONFIRMED +9.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Lorenzo Musetti@ 77.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -46.0pp1h INVALIDATED -51.0pp
Latest book event: Dane Sweeny UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $4.7K → $9.3K · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Dane Sweeny; negative values favor Lorenzo Musetti. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDane Sweeny · $28.0K
6hLorenzo Musetti · $25.1K
24hLorenzo Musetti · $26.9K

Dane Sweeny price VWAP

Volume-weighted Dane Sweeny price. Lorenzo Musetti fills are converted to the complementary Dane Sweeny probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h70.7¢▲ above by 29.2pp
VWAP 7d70.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Dane Sweeny price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$85.7K
90¢
$1.8K
85¢
$51.4K
80¢
$14.9K
75¢
$22.3K
70¢
$3.9K
65¢
$5.1K
60¢
$12.0K
55¢
$1.0K
50¢
$0
45¢
$2.2K
40¢
$3.7K
35¢
$29.4K
30¢
$2.2K
25¢
$40.0K
20¢
$1.6K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$6.7K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLDane Sweeny$35.1K@ 99.9¢
alexdave8880xa4fd…748b
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYDane Sweeny$20.1K@ 97.9¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—41 minutes ago
BUYDane Sweeny$11.4K@ 86.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDane Sweeny$14.6K@ 86.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$12.2K@ 61.6¢
n0tTODAY0x89a6…429a
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$19.7K@ 72.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

RN1Dane Sweeny$39.6K
BUY VWAP 85.9¢·5 fills
0b1feDane Sweeny$20.1K
BUY VWAP 97.9¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Lorenzo Musetti$19.7K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·1 fill
n0tTODAYLorenzo Musetti$13.8K
BUY VWAP 43.2¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.