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Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)

● quote 11s ago
Sports→Closes: 31 minutesLiquidity: $13.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $68.3KEvent: Sporting CP vs. CD Nacional - More Markets
34.0¢
Sporting CP
66.0¢
CD Nacional
6.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution46Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:15 trades$28.9K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:CD Nacional · $5.8K net·3 wallets·$5.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSporting CP$16.5K@ 46¢·theowalcott

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$805
6h
+$12.1K
tracked
$28.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: CD Nacional · $5.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
6.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -10.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 6.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-05 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ligaportugal.pt/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Sporting CP" if Sporting CP win the game by 3 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "CD Nacional".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Primeira Liga game, scheduled for September 4 at 3:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Sporting CP" if Sporting CP win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "CD Nacional". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on ligaportugal.pt. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Sporting CP@ 47.0¢58m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Sporting CP UP 16.5pp · near-book depth $2.2K → $37 · 9s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Sporting CP; negative values favor CD Nacional. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSporting CP · $805
6hSporting CP · $12.1K
24hSporting CP · $12.1K

Sporting CP price VWAP

Volume-weighted Sporting CP price. CD Nacional fills are converted to the complementary Sporting CP probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.0¢
VWAP 24h46.7¢▼ below by 12.7pp
VWAP 7d46.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Sporting CP price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$28.9K
40¢
$24
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSporting CP$16.5K@ 46.4¢
theowalcott0x7ad7…42aa
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

theowalcottSporting CP$16.5K
BUY VWAP 46.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.