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Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $9.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $165.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B
68.5¢
Vitality
31.5¢
FUT Esports
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets10Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution75Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority43Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:27 trades$62.9K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:FUT Esports · $2.3K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$24.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVitality$18.7K@ 42¢·0xd570…e4f8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

FUT Esports pressure: $6.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.8K
6h
−$1.1K
tracked
$62.9K

4 verified profitable wallets: FUT Esports · $2.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 43

Since latest large flow: -16.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from FUT Esports or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-01 00:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality wins 2 or more maps than FUT Esports in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FUT Esports".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket final match between FUT Esports and Vitality in the BLAST Open Porto Group B, initially scheduled for August 31, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality wins 2 or more maps than FUT Esports in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FUT Esports". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 14, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 31, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xd570…e4f83 linked markets · $245.2K gross
Sunny242 linked markets · $66.5K gross
0x1610…ae493 linked markets · $62.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Vitality@ 85.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -49.0pp1h INVALIDATED -17.0pp
Latest book event: FUT Esports UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $2 → $749 · 28s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Vitality; negative values favor FUT Esports. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFUT Esports · $6.8K
6hFUT Esports · $1.1K
24hVitality · $228

Vitality price VWAP

Volume-weighted Vitality price. FUT Esports fills are converted to the complementary Vitality probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current68.5¢
VWAP 24h40.7¢▲ above by 27.8pp
VWAP 7d40.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Vitality price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$7
60¢
$582
55¢
$3
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$45.7K
35¢
$16.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$2
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYVitality$18.7K@ 41.6¢0xd570…e4f8🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFUT Esports$10.0K@ 60.9¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xd570…e4f8Vitality$18.7K
BUY VWAP 41.6¢·1 fill
0x29b5…cc6cVitality$10.9K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·2 fills
0xf559…f462FUT Esports$10.0K
BUY VWAP 60.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.