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US Open ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Luca Van Assche

Sports→Settlement: Denis ShapovalovLiquidity: $242.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $437.8KEvent: US Open ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Luca Van Assche
100.0¢
Denis Shapovalov payout
0.0¢
Luca Van Assche payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:211 trades$168.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 47 min agoofficial metadata 36 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Denis Shapovalov · $7.2K net·8 wallets·$14.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDenis Shapovalov$29.0K@ 58¢·AV23IUa

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Denis Shapovalov. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-09 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Denis Shapovalov and Luca Van Assche in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Denis Shapovalov' if Denis Shapovalov advances against Luca Van Assche. This market will resolve to 'Luca Van Assche' if Luca Van Assche advances against Denis Shapovalov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Luca Van Assche@ 42.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Denis Shapovalov@ 59.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +31.0pp
Latest book event: Luca Van Assche DOWN 6.1pp · near-book depth $191 → $70 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Denis Shapovalov; negative values favor Luca Van Assche. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLuca Van Assche · $7.8K
6hLuca Van Assche · $30.9K
24hDenis Shapovalov · $69

Denis Shapovalov price VWAP

Volume-weighted Denis Shapovalov price. Luca Van Assche fills are converted to the complementary Denis Shapovalov probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h76.0¢▲ above by 24.0pp
VWAP 7d76.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Denis Shapovalov price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$42.4K
90¢
$24.0K
85¢
$9.0K
80¢
$3.2K
75¢
$7.9K
70¢
$785
65¢
$5.4K
60¢
$23
55¢
$71.3K
50¢
$149
45¢
$4.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLuca Van Assche$15.0K@ 42.5¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYDenis Shapovalov$29.0K@ 58.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 14 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaDenis Shapovalov$29.0K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
NiNo999Luca Van Assche$15.0K
BUY VWAP 42.5¢·1 fill
mooseborzoiDenis Shapovalov$14.0K
BUY VWAP 85.2¢·7 fills
Gourmet1Luca Van Assche$13.3K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.