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US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley

● quote 3 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $261.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $377.2KEvent: US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley
99.9¢
Tomas Etcheverry
0.1¢
Jacob Fearnley
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets47Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:91 trades$108.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 30 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tomas Etcheverry · $3.7K net·6 wallets·$8.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLJacob Fearnley$22.2K@ 40¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Jacob Fearnley pressure: $3.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.3K
6h
+$29.7K
tracked
$108.8K

6 verified profitable wallets: Tomas Etcheverry · $3.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 30 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Jacob Fearnley or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-09 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Etcheverry and Jacob Fearnley in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Etcheverry' if Tomas Etcheverry advances against Jacob Fearnley. This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Tomas Etcheverry. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Tomas Etcheverry UP 5.6pp · near-book depth $1.1K → $5.9K · 38s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tomas Etcheverry; negative values favor Jacob Fearnley. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJacob Fearnley · $3.3K
6hTomas Etcheverry · $29.7K
24hTomas Etcheverry · $37.4K

Tomas Etcheverry price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tomas Etcheverry price. Jacob Fearnley fills are converted to the complementary Tomas Etcheverry probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h70.8¢▲ above by 29.1pp
VWAP 7d70.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tomas Etcheverry price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$3.5K
90¢
$13.1K
85¢
$15.2K
80¢
$5.2K
75¢
$7.9K
70¢
$469
65¢
$116
60¢
$27.3K
55¢
$35.8K
50¢
$84
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLJacob Fearnley$22.2K@ 40.1¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

mooseborzoiTomas Etcheverry$11.9K
BUY VWAP 60.4¢·6 fills
0x5f65…2036Jacob Fearnley$10.0K
BUY VWAP 13.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.