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US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Katerina Siniakova

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $80.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $196.2KEvent: US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Katerina Siniakova
100.0¢
Naomi Osaka
0.1¢
Katerina Siniakova
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution96Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:36 trades$76.6K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 72 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Naomi Osaka · $25.3K net·5 wallets·$25.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNaomi Osaka$20.7K@ 99¢·hd777

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$48.3K
tracked
$76.6K

5 verified profitable wallets: Naomi Osaka · $25.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 72 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-09 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Katerina Siniakova in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if Naomi Osaka advances against Katerina Siniakova. This market will resolve to 'Katerina Siniakova' if Katerina Siniakova advances against Naomi Osaka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Naomi Osaka DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $15.5K → $39 · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Naomi Osaka; negative values favor Katerina Siniakova. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNaomi Osaka · $0
6hNaomi Osaka · $48.3K
24hNaomi Osaka · $55.1K

Naomi Osaka price VWAP

Volume-weighted Naomi Osaka price. Katerina Siniakova fills are converted to the complementary Naomi Osaka probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h91.2¢▲ above by 8.7pp
VWAP 7d91.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Naomi Osaka price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$37.6K
90¢
$11.9K
85¢
$6.7K
80¢
$3.1K
75¢
$17.2K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNaomi Osaka$20.7K@ 99.0¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

hd777Naomi Osaka$25.5K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·2 fills
FlaznorpNaomi Osaka$14.3K
BUY VWAP 90.6¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.