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US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $315.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $374.6KEvent: US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien
4.5¢
Gael Monfils
95.5¢
Learner Tien
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets90Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:82 trades$216.0K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 58%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Learner Tien · $100.2K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$110.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLearner Tien$68.5K@ 84¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Learner Tien pressure: $19.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$19.5K
6h
−$154.7K
tracked
$216.0K

9 verified profitable wallets: Learner Tien · $100.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 68

Since latest liquidity absorption: +11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 11.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Learner Tien or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-10 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Gael Monfils and Learner Tien in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gael Monfils' if Gael Monfils advances against Learner Tien. This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Gael Monfils. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Learner Tien@ 85.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +4.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Learner Tien@ 84.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Learner Tien@ 84.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Gael Monfils; negative values favor Learner Tien. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLearner Tien · $19.5K
6hLearner Tien · $154.7K
24hLearner Tien · $189.5K

Gael Monfils price VWAP

Volume-weighted Gael Monfils price. Learner Tien fills are converted to the complementary Gael Monfils probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.5¢
VWAP 24h16.3¢▼ below by 11.8pp
VWAP 7d16.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Gael Monfils price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$6.9K
15¢
$202.9K
10¢
$6.9K
5¢
$5.4K
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLearner Tien$68.5K@ 84.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLearner Tien$13.3K@ 83.0¢
degenfren0x979f…4032
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYLearner Tien$13.4K@ 82.0¢
degenfren0x979f…4032
🐋—about 18 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Learner Tien$79.2K
BUY VWAP 83.9¢·3 fills
degenfrenLearner Tien$47.6K
BUY VWAP 82.8¢·6 fills
FlaznorpLearner Tien$11.0K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.