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Fresno State vs. San Jose State

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $405.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $399.2KEvent: Fresno State vs. San Jose State
64.5¢
Fresno State
35.5¢
San Jose State
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly3Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:35 trades$130.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 33%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:San Jose State · $4.5K net·2 wallets·$4.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Jose State$44.4K@ 35¢·maz26

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$100
6h
−$112.5K
tracked
$130.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: San Jose State · $4.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 31 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Fresno State" if Fresno State win the game.

•This market will resolve to "San Jose State" if San Jose State win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Fresno State and San Jose State, scheduled for September 19 at 11:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Fresno State" if Fresno State win the game. This market will resolve to "San Jose State" if San Jose State win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY San Jose State@ 35.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY San Jose State@ 35.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY San Jose State@ 35.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY San Jose State@ 35.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Fresno State; negative values favor San Jose State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSan Jose State · $100
6hSan Jose State · $112.5K
24hSan Jose State · $126.6K

Fresno State price VWAP

Volume-weighted Fresno State price. San Jose State fills are converted to the complementary Fresno State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current64.5¢
VWAP 24h65.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d65.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Fresno State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$130.0K
60¢
← now
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSan Jose State$44.4K@ 35.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

maz26San Jose State$51.9K
BUY VWAP 35.0¢·2 fills
quavooSan Jose State$40.2K
BUY VWAP 35.0¢·19 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.