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Seville: Henrique Rocha vs Dusan Lajovic

● quote 12s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $194.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $154.4KEvent: Seville: Henrique Rocha vs Dusan Lajovic
0.1¢
Henrique Rocha
100.0¢
Dusan Lajovic
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection23Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:70 trades$55.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Dusan Lajovic · $39.5K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$40.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDusan Lajovic$10.0K@ 41¢·0x78be…bde0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Dusan Lajovic pressure: $12.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.7K
6h
−$35.4K
tracked
$55.0K

6 verified profitable wallets: Dusan Lajovic · $39.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +21.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 21.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Dusan Lajovic or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-18 18:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Henrique Rocha and Dusan Lajovic in the Seville, originally scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 2:15PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Henrique Rocha' if Henrique Rocha advances against Dusan Lajovic. This market will resolve to 'Dusan Lajovic' if Dusan Lajovic advances against Henrique Rocha. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Dusan Lajovic1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Dusan Lajovic@ 79.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Dusan Lajovic UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $13.1K → $354 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Henrique Rocha; negative values favor Dusan Lajovic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDusan Lajovic · $12.7K
6hDusan Lajovic · $35.4K
24hDusan Lajovic · $35.4K

Henrique Rocha price VWAP

Volume-weighted Henrique Rocha price. Dusan Lajovic fills are converted to the complementary Henrique Rocha probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h32.5¢▼ below by 32.4pp
VWAP 7d32.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Henrique Rocha price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$8.0K
55¢
$10.6K
50¢
$1.2K
45¢
$3.5K
40¢
$317
35¢
$1.5K
30¢
$3.6K
25¢
$2.5K
20¢
$6.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$16
5¢
$3.9K
0¢
← now
$13.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYDusan Lajovic$10.0K@ 41.2¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Dusan Lajovic$18.0K
BUY VWAP 39.9¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesDusan Lajovic$12.6K
BUY VWAP 80.9¢·19 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.