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LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $57.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $345.3KEvent: LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs
73.5¢
LYON
26.5¢
Cloud9
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets25Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 19 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:214 trades$150.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 53s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:LYON · $11.9K net·19 wallets(2🐋)·$47.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLYON$18.4K@ 82¢·jaytee158

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Cloud9 pressure: $14.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$14.9K
6h
+$66.5K
tracked
$150.2K

19 verified profitable wallets: LYON · $11.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 50

Since latest large flow: -11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Cloud9 or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win the match against Cloud9.

•This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if Cloud9 win the match against LYON.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between LYON and Cloud9 in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win the match against Cloud9. This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if Cloud9 win the match against LYON. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e4 linked markets · $86.0K gross
5e46h2 linked markets · $74.8K gross
johnny2342 linked markets · $35.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY LYON@ 85.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -12.0pp1h INVALIDATED -40.0pp
Latest book event: Cloud9 DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $210 → $274 · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor LYON; negative values favor Cloud9. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCloud9 · $14.9K
6hLYON · $66.5K
24hLYON · $67.5K

LYON price VWAP

Volume-weighted LYON price. Cloud9 fills are converted to the complementary LYON probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current73.5¢
VWAP 24h70.5¢▲ above by 3.0pp
VWAP 7d70.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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LYON price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$408
80¢
$42.0K
75¢
$18.9K
70¢
← now
$37.1K
65¢
$1.9K
60¢
$22.6K
55¢
$18.5K
50¢
$14
45¢
$1.4K
40¢
$7.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCloud9$14.7K@ 27.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—14 minutes ago
BUYLYON$18.4K@ 82.0¢
jaytee1580xa2c9…2c23
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLYON$14.4K@ 80.0¢0xb552…b70c🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLYON$10.5K@ 78.0¢
Grig5150x98d5…2ec4
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xb552…b70cLYON$23.5K
BUY VWAP 70.1¢·6 fills
jaytee158LYON$18.4K
BUY VWAP 82.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Cloud9$14.7K
BUY VWAP 27.0¢·1 fill
Grig515LYON$10.5K
BUY VWAP 78.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.