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Spread: San Diego State (-1.5)

● quote 15s ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $124.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $71.7KEvent: James Madison vs. San Diego State
52.5¢
San Diego State
47.5¢
James Madison
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$32.8K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 533 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:San Diego State · $26.9K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$26.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego State$21.0K@ 52¢·Kch-Temp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$32.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: San Diego State · $26.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 533 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "San Diego State" if San Diego State win the game by 2 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "James Madison".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 19 at 10:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego State" if San Diego State win the game by 2 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "James Madison". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Kch-Temp2 linked markets · $72.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY San Diego State@ 53.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor San Diego State; negative values favor James Madison. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSan Diego State · $0
6hSan Diego State · $0
24hSan Diego State · $20.9K

San Diego State price VWAP

Volume-weighted San Diego State price. James Madison fills are converted to the complementary San Diego State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h51.9¢▲ above by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d51.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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San Diego State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$32.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSan Diego State$21.0K@ 51.8¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Kch-TempSan Diego State$21.0K
BUY VWAP 51.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.