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Spread: Vikings (-9.5)

● quote 25s ago
Sports→Closes: about 9 hoursLiquidity: $253.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $120.3KEvent: Dolphins vs. Vikings
51.5¢
Vikings
48.5¢
Dolphins
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$56.1K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 216 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Dolphins · $7.0K net·2 wallets·$7.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDolphins$49.0K@ 49¢·THEdirkdiggler

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$55.9K
tracked
$56.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: Dolphins · $7.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 216 minutes old.
  • •Less than 9h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 20:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Vikings" if the Vikings win the game by 10 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Dolphins and Vikings, scheduled for October 4 at 4:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Vikings" if the Vikings win the game by 10 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ArielFilipino2 linked markets · $32.1K gross
Herdonia3 linked markets · $10.8K gross
Oddstorm3 linked markets · $279 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Dolphins@ 49.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Vikings; negative values favor Dolphins. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hVikings · $0
6hDolphins · $55.9K
24hDolphins · $55.9K

Vikings price VWAP

Volume-weighted Vikings price. Dolphins fills are converted to the complementary Vikings probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h51.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d51.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Vikings price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$69.9K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYDolphins$49.0K@ 49.0¢
THEdirkdiggler0x1e77…8c33
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYDolphins$13.8K@ 49.0¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

THEdirkdigglerDolphins$49.0K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
ArielFilipinoDolphins$13.8K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.