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Adana: Ksenia Efremova vs Martyna Kubka

● quote 17s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $9.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $130.6KEvent: Adana: Ksenia Efremova vs Martyna Kubka
24.0¢
Ksenia Efremova
76.0¢
Martyna Kubka
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets57Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution71Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:29 trades$44.2K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 32 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Martyna Kubka · $21.2K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$37.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMartyna Kubka$29.0K@ 74¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$4
6h
−$7
tracked
$44.2K

4 verified profitable wallets: Martyna Kubka · $21.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 32 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 11:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ksenia Efremova and Martyna Kubka in the Adana, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ksenia Efremova' if Ksenia Efremova advances against Martyna Kubka. This market will resolve to 'Martyna Kubka' if Martyna Kubka advances against Ksenia Efremova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Martyna Kubka@ 76.0¢13h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ksenia Efremova; negative values favor Martyna Kubka. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMartyna Kubka · $4
6hMartyna Kubka · $7
24hMartyna Kubka · $23.6K

Ksenia Efremova price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ksenia Efremova price. Martyna Kubka fills are converted to the complementary Ksenia Efremova probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current24.0¢
VWAP 24h24.4¢▼ below by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d24.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ksenia Efremova price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$1.1K
30¢
$0
25¢
$31.3K
20¢
← now
$3.2K
15¢
$8.6K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMartyna Kubka$29.0K@ 74.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 13 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Martyna Kubka$29.0K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.