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Wuning 3: Ryuki Matsuda vs Sergey Betov

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $117.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $98.3KEvent: Wuning 3: Ryuki Matsuda vs Sergey Betov
97.2¢
Ryuki Matsuda
2.8¢
Sergey Betov
0.6¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$7.9K trackedsource coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSergey Betov$7.7K@ 9¢·0xe30e…6b87

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$225
6h
−$7.4K
tracked
$7.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: Sergey Betov · $1 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.6¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ryuki Matsuda and Sergey Betov in the Wuning 3, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ryuki Matsuda' if Ryuki Matsuda advances against Sergey Betov. This market will resolve to 'Sergey Betov' if Sergey Betov advances against Ryuki Matsuda. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Ryuki Matsuda UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $34.4K → $12.7K · 91s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ryuki Matsuda; negative values favor Sergey Betov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRyuki Matsuda · $225
6hSergey Betov · $7.4K
24hSergey Betov · $7.4K

Ryuki Matsuda price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ryuki Matsuda price. Sergey Betov fills are converted to the complementary Ryuki Matsuda probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current97.2¢
VWAP 24h91.0¢▲ above by 6.2pp
VWAP 7d91.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ryuki Matsuda price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$76
90¢
$7.8K
85¢
$2
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.