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Spread: Ohio (-17.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: 18 minutesLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $26.2KEvent: Ohio vs. Sacramento State
48.5¢
Ohio
51.5¢
Sacramento State
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$10.2K trackedsource coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 126 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOhio$8.6K@ 46¢·quavoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$10.2K
tracked
$10.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: Ohio · $30 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 126 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-18 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Ohio" if Ohio win the game by 18 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Sacramento State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 17 at 10:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Ohio" if Ohio win the game by 18 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Sacramento State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20263 linked markets · $27.7K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $11.2K gross
UpTheBlues5 linked markets · $388 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ohio; negative values favor Sacramento State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOhio · $0
6hOhio · $10.2K
24hOhio · $10.2K

Ohio price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ohio price. Sacramento State fills are converted to the complementary Ohio probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h45.8¢▲ above by 2.7pp
VWAP 7d45.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ohio price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$8.8K
40¢
$1.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Ohio (-16.5)
54.5¢$24.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Ohio (-15.5)
56.5¢$18.2Kpriority48Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ohio vs. Sacramento State
0.0¢$14.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Ohio (-14.5)
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Spread: Ohio (-12.5)
0.0¢$62priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Ohio (-10.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Ohio (-8.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Ohio (-20.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

quavooOhio$10.2K
BUY VWAP 45.8¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.