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Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-10-31?

● quote 951 min ago
Sports→SoccerCloses: about 20 hoursLiquidity: $75.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $151.5KEvent: SC Heerenveen vs. NEC

Indicative prices · 951 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
YES
1.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets56Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution26Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:38 trades$68.7K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1007 min agoofficial metadata 949 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $10.7K net·8 wallets(1🐋)·$22.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$20.5K@ 57¢·plonker2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$68.7K

8 verified profitable wallets: YES · $10.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 951 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1007 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 949 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-31 17:45 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://eredivisie.nl/competitie/speelschema
Outcome meaning

•If SC Heerenveen wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 31, 2026 If SC Heerenveen wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
plonker20262 linked markets · $22.7K gross
UpTheBlues2 linked markets · $6.6K gross
Flaznorp2 linked markets · $1.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 57.0¢20h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +6.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $2.4K → $7.4K · 8s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $20.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h49.98¢▲ above by 49.9pp
VWAP 7d49.89¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$7.6K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$643
75¢
$70
70¢
$45
65¢
$12
60¢
$15
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$3.1K
40¢
$58.4K
35¢
$8
30¢
$55
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$14.5K@ 43.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 20 hours ago
BUYNO$20.5K@ 57.0¢
plonker20260x0a39…b0b9
🐋—about 20 hours ago
BUYNO$11.8K@ 55.99¢
1l2ihj34li12u340xb52e…285c
🐋—about 21 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

plonker2026No$20.5K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Yes$14.5K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill
1l2ihj34li12u34No$11.8K
BUY VWAP 55.99¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.