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Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino

● quote 931 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $355.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $291.9KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino

Indicative prices · 931 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Nuno Borges
0.1¢
Adrian Mannarino
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets12Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:110 trades$121.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 947 min agoofficial metadata 930 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Adrian Mannarino · $3.3K net·12 wallets·$28.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNuno Borges$14.1K@ 86¢·Luzzzer

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$121.6K

12 verified profitable wallets: Adrian Mannarino · $3.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 931 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 947 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 930 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-07 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nuno Borges and Adrian Mannarino in the Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nuno Borges' if Nuno Borges advances against Adrian Mannarino. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Nuno Borges. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x91e8…ec412 linked markets · $24 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Adrian Mannarino DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $107 → $2.1K · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nuno Borges; negative values favor Adrian Mannarino. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNuno Borges · $0
6hNuno Borges · $0
24hAdrian Mannarino · $21.0K

Nuno Borges price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nuno Borges price. Adrian Mannarino fills are converted to the complementary Nuno Borges probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h67.89¢▲ above by 32.0pp
VWAP 7d67.89¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nuno Borges price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$15.2K
90¢
$12.1K
85¢
$20.1K
80¢
$899
75¢
$1.4K
70¢
$2.2K
65¢
$9.9K
60¢
$4.8K
55¢
$5.5K
50¢
$22.6K
45¢
$15.6K
40¢
$1.4K
35¢
$6.5K
30¢
$2.5K
25¢
$910
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNuno Borges$11.1K@ 99.9¢
redvinny0x56c9…0d9e
🐋—about 16 hours ago
SELLNuno Borges$14.1K@ 86.0¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 17 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cNuno Borges$12.3K
BUY VWAP 57.98¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cAdrian Mannarino$11.8K
BUY VWAP 52.92¢·4 fills
redvinnyNuno Borges$10.1K
BUY VWAP 90.80¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.