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Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-08-19?

● quote 1268 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 24 hoursLiquidity: $165.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $312.7KEvent: Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets61Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:42 trades$123.8K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1316 min agoofficial metadata 1261 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$37.2K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$40.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$38.9K@ 58¢·theowalcott

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$5
6h
−$5.8K
tracked
$123.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$37.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1268 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1316 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1261 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 19, 2026 If Columbus Crew wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 44.0¢23h ago
15m CONFIRMED +10.0pp1h CONFIRMED +50.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 59.0¢23h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp1h INVALIDATED -16.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 58.0¢24h ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -11.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $227 → $159 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$5
6h−$5.8K
24h−$5.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h56.7¢▼ below by 56.6pp
VWAP 7d56.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$122.1K
50¢
$0
45¢
$55
40¢
$111
35¢
$107
30¢
$1.4K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$17.2K@ 45.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 24 hours ago
BUYNO$20.5K@ 43.4¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 24 hours ago
BUYYES$38.9K@ 58.0¢
theowalcott0x7ad7…42aa
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$14.4K@ 57.0¢
kekasaur0xf5f9…87b0
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

theowalcottYes$38.9K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
beachboy4No$37.7K
BUY VWAP 44.1¢·2 fills
kekasaurYes$19.9K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·2 fills
0x2a69…d2f7No$12.1K
BUY VWAP 44.1¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.