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Game Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $75.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $143.2KEvent: LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
99.5¢
YES
0.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly14Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets6Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:30 trades$58.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $735·4 wallets·$11.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFnatic (YES)$10.2K@ 52¢·verifly

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$238
6h
+$12.2K
tracked
$58.4K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$735 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +47.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 47.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Fnatic and Shifters in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Fnatic" if Fnatic wins 2 or more games than Shifters in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Shifters". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 22, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e3 linked markets · $38.9K gross
1111111111153 linked markets · $34.4K gross
5e46h2 linked markets · $20.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Fnatic1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Fnatic@ 53.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +14.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $197 → $60 · 78s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$238
6h+$12.2K
24h+$10.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.5¢
VWAP 24h51.9¢▲ above by 47.6pp
VWAP 7d51.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$1
70¢
$196
65¢
$0
60¢
$4
55¢
$4.9K
50¢
$53.2K
45¢
$48
40¢
$40
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYFnatic (YES)$10.2K@ 52.0¢
verifly0x5286…0d47
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
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0.1¢$3.8Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner
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LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$993.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

veriflyFnatic$15.8K
BUY VWAP 51.7¢·3 fills
111111111115Shifters$14.7K
BUY VWAP 48.6¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.