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LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $1.1MOfficial 24h Vol: $853.8KEvent: LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
100.0¢
Natus Vincere
0.1¢
Fnatic
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets45Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 28 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:299 trades$336.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Fnatic · $70.7K net·28 wallets(1🐋)·$157.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNatus Vincere$30.8K@ 100¢·5e46h

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Fnatic pressure: $64.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$64.9K
6h
−$80.8K
tracked
$336.6K

28 verified profitable wallets: Fnatic · $70.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: -82.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Fnatic or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-24 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against Fnatic.

•This market will resolve to "Fnatic" if Fnatic win Game 1 against Natus Vincere.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Natus Vincere and Fnatic in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against Fnatic. This market will resolve to "Fnatic" if Fnatic win Game 1 against Natus Vincere. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 24, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
1111111111153 linked markets · $154.5K gross
minji3 linked markets · $28.8K gross
0x1610…ae492 linked markets · $25.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Fnatic54m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Fnatic@ 83.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -39.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 50.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -28.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Fnatic DOWN 14.5pp · near-book depth $400 → $99 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Natus Vincere; negative values favor Fnatic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFnatic · $64.9K
6hFnatic · $80.8K
24hFnatic · $80.8K

Natus Vincere price VWAP

Volume-weighted Natus Vincere price. Fnatic fills are converted to the complementary Natus Vincere probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h61.8¢▲ above by 38.2pp
VWAP 7d61.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Natus Vincere price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$125.1K
90¢
$4.9K
85¢
$7.0K
80¢
$1.1K
75¢
$0
70¢
$11.2K
65¢
$6.9K
60¢
$0
55¢
$1.1K
50¢
$10.3K
45¢
$39.0K
40¢
$50.4K
35¢
$7.1K
30¢
$4.4K
25¢
$1.5K
20¢
$23.3K
15¢
$18.8K
10¢
$2.7K
5¢
$2.0K
0¢
$19.8K

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNatus Vincere$10.4K@ 99.9¢
Zywoo1230xc44f…d49f
🐋—26 minutes ago
SELLNatus Vincere$30.8K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—31 minutes ago
BUYNatus Vincere$22.0K@ 99.9¢
landighertz0x73b1…bd8b
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYFnatic$18.1K@ 98.8¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

landighertzNatus Vincere$22.0K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
5e46hFnatic$18.1K
BUY VWAP 98.8¢·1 fill
111111111115Natus Vincere$16.0K
BUY VWAP 44.5¢·3 fills
minjiFnatic$11.8K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·7 fills
5e46hNatus Vincere$10.4K
BUY VWAP 97.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.