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LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner

● quote 13s ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $657.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $859.5KEvent: LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
100.0¢
Natus Vincere
0.1¢
Fnatic
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets41Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 17 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:273 trades$336.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Fnatic · $32.5K net·17 wallets(1🐋)·$78.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere$24.9K@ 46¢·111111111115

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Natus Vincere pressure: $42.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$42.9K
6h
+$52.8K
tracked
$336.4K

17 verified profitable wallets: Fnatic · $32.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Natus Vincere or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-24 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 2 against Fnatic.

•This market will resolve to "Fnatic" if Fnatic win Game 2 against Natus Vincere.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Natus Vincere and Fnatic in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 2 against Fnatic. This market will resolve to "Fnatic" if Fnatic win Game 2 against Natus Vincere. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 24, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
1111111111153 linked markets · $156.0K gross
5e46h2 linked markets · $62.3K gross
fkcvffcjt3 linked markets · $40.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Natus Vincere@ 98.0¢44m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Natus Vincere59m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Natus Vincere59m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Fnatic1h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Fnatic DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $48 → $46 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Natus Vincere; negative values favor Fnatic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNatus Vincere · $42.9K
6hNatus Vincere · $52.8K
24hNatus Vincere · $52.8K

Natus Vincere price VWAP

Volume-weighted Natus Vincere price. Fnatic fills are converted to the complementary Natus Vincere probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h65.2¢▲ above by 34.8pp
VWAP 7d65.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Natus Vincere price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$106.3K
90¢
$6.0K
85¢
$12.7K
80¢
$16
75¢
$4.3K
70¢
$9.2K
65¢
$5.4K
60¢
$813
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.2K
45¢
$109.0K
40¢
$52.3K
35¢
$16.6K
30¢
$11.0K
25¢
$1.8K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNatus Vincere$11.4K@ 45.6¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$17.9K@ 45.6¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFnatic$16.0K@ 57.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$24.9K@ 45.8¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

111111111115Natus Vincere$78.2K
BUY VWAP 45.7¢·9 fills
RoshanMVPNatus Vincere$37.1K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·10 fills
0x1610…ae49Fnatic$16.0K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.