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Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner

● quote 2 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $1.4MOfficial 24h Vol: $867.8KEvent: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets43Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:256 trades$345.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 12s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $41.4K·3 wallets·$97.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLFUT Esports (NO)$12.6K@ 100¢·MysteryPlayerrrrrrrrr

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$32.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$32.5K
6h
−$44.6K
tracked
$345.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$41.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +27.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 27.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 1 match between FURIA and FUT Esports in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win Map 1 against FUT Esports. This market will resolve to "FUT Esports" if FUT Esports win Map 1 against FURIA. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 1h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f3 linked markets · $128.3K gross
0x1610…ae493 linked markets · $75.9K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $74.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY NO35m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY FUT Esports44m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY NO@ 73.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY FUT Esports@ 69.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 9.0pp · near-book depth $558 → $708 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$32.5K
6h−$44.6K
24h−$44.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h32.0¢▼ below by 31.0pp
VWAP 7d32.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$16.3K
55¢
$7.1K
50¢
$41.1K
45¢
$54.5K
40¢
$26.6K
35¢
$46.2K
30¢
$32.9K
25¢
$15.6K
20¢
$9.5K
15¢
$10.6K
10¢
$8.0K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$77.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLFUT Esports (NO)$12.6K@ 99.9¢
MysteryPlayerrrrrrrrr0xf9d6…730a
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYFUT Esports (NO)$10.2K@ 51.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
53.5¢$4.5Mpriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner
77.0¢$219.5Kpriority71Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)
0.1¢$95.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
77.0¢$26.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs
0.1¢$3.6Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$1.8Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$983.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fFUT Esports$56.6K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·28 fills
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fFURIA$25.6K
BUY VWAP 43.5¢·13 fills
0x1610…ae49FUT Esports$23.6K
BUY VWAP 52.5¢·4 fills
0x0063…2dd2FUT Esports$17.4K
BUY VWAP 57.5¢·11 fills
JustADonkFUT Esports$12.8K
BUY VWAP 72.9¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.