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Miami Marlins vs. Kansas City Royals

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $9.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $179.4KEvent: Miami Marlins vs. Kansas City Royals
2.1¢
Miami Marlins
97.9¢
Kansas City Royals
0.8¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution68Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:54 trades$94.1K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Miami Marlins · $19.2K net·5 wallets(2🐋)·$51.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMiami Marlins$23.1K@ 64¢·fkcvffcjt

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Kansas City Royals pressure: $18.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$18.0K
6h
−$12.2K
tracked
$94.1K

5 verified profitable wallets: Miami Marlins · $19.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.8¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 53

Since latest large flow: -63.5pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Kansas City Royals or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-10 23:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Kansas City Royals, scheduled for September 3 at 7:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo2 linked markets · $20.1K gross
1winstreak12 linked markets · $8.1K gross
0x9fd4…de152 linked markets · $261 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Miami Marlins2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Miami Marlins@ 66.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -37.0pp
Latest book event: Miami Marlins UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $0 → $183 · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Miami Marlins; negative values favor Kansas City Royals. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKansas City Royals · $18.0K
6hKansas City Royals · $12.2K
24hKansas City Royals · $14.1K

Miami Marlins price VWAP

Volume-weighted Miami Marlins price. Kansas City Royals fills are converted to the complementary Miami Marlins probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.1¢
VWAP 24h43.5¢▼ below by 41.4pp
VWAP 7d43.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Miami Marlins price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$7
65¢
$8.1K
60¢
$23.2K
55¢
$3
50¢
$10.9K
45¢
$24.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$1.3K
25¢
$1.3K
20¢
$3.7K
15¢
$0
10¢
$17.5K
5¢
$3.8K
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMiami Marlins$10.9K@ 50.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMiami Marlins$23.1K@ 64.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKansas City Royals$12.0K@ 53.0¢
paquitomillonario0x04e6…3914
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYKansas City Royals$10.0K@ 53.0¢
IAmHomelessNow0xd3fa…a26c
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

fkcvffcjtMiami Marlins$35.1K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·3 fills
paquitomillonarioKansas City Royals$12.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
IAmHomelessNowKansas City Royals$10.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.