PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Politics→Closes: 16 daysLiquidity: $50.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $57.5KEvent: Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?
48.0¢
YES
52.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution77Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:10 trades$9.8K trackedsource coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 49s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $3.6K net·2 wallets·$3.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$2.9K@ 47¢·M2sx92kljs42

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $1.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.0K
6h
−$1.0K
tracked
$9.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: YES · $3.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

•Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent contradictory statements, or alternative information from other sources.

Read full resolution rules

On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must express that the pipeline is presently operating; operation at partial or reduced capacity qualifies. Announcements that attribute such a claim to third parties, state that the pipeline will or may operate in the future, describe work underway to restore operation, or frame resumption as expected, planned, or conditional, will not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent contradictory statements, or alternative information from other sources. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $1.0K
6hNO · $1.0K
24hNO · $2.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.0¢
VWAP 24h50.0¢▼ below by 2.0pp
VWAP 7d50.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.2K
55¢
$0
50¢
$3.9K
45¢
← now
$2.5K
40¢
$2.2K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1¢$421.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
95.9¢$401.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16.5¢$178.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?
0.4¢$169.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Iran leadership change by September 30?
2.1¢$145.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
0.4¢$126.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
3.5¢$110.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
96.7¢$110.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.