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Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox

● quote 3 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $369.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $506.6KEvent: Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox
3.0¢
Cleveland Guardians
99.9¢
Boston Red Sox
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets84Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:139 trades$192.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Boston Red Sox · $67.6K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$80.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBoston Red Sox$27.9K@ 56¢·0x1610…ae49

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Boston Red Sox pressure: $12.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.2K
6h
−$88.0K
tracked
$192.7K

11 verified profitable wallets: Boston Red Sox · $67.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +43.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 18 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 43.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Boston Red Sox or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-30 23:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for September 23 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $38.5K gross
0x4f22 linked markets · $30.0K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $22.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Boston Red Sox@ 57.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: Boston Red Sox UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $72.7K → $1.3K · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cleveland Guardians; negative values favor Boston Red Sox. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBoston Red Sox · $12.2K
6hBoston Red Sox · $88.0K
24hBoston Red Sox · $97.3K

Cleveland Guardians price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cleveland Guardians price. Boston Red Sox fills are converted to the complementary Cleveland Guardians probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.0¢
VWAP 24h34.1¢▼ below by 31.1pp
VWAP 7d34.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cleveland Guardians price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.9K
45¢
$11.1K
40¢
$63.7K
35¢
$48.6K
30¢
$11.9K
25¢
$17.8K
20¢
$7.3K
15¢
$4.7K
10¢
$8.8K
5¢
$15.8K
0¢
← now
$1.2K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBoston Red Sox$27.9K@ 56.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Boston Red Sox$27.9K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardBoston Red Sox$22.5K
BUY VWAP 71.7¢·7 fills
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rBoston Red Sox$11.9K
BUY VWAP 68.2¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.