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Olbia: Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonald

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $62.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $916.0KEvent: Olbia: Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonald
99.5¢
Lorenzo Carboni
0.5¢
Mackenzie McDonald
0.8¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets13Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:255 trades$212.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 23%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lorenzo Carboni · $16.1K net·12 wallets(1🐋)·$123.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMackenzie McDonald$12.9K@ 66¢·Mastermoney

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Lorenzo Carboni pressure: $20.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$20.7K
6h
+$19.4K
tracked
$212.0K

12 verified profitable wallets: Lorenzo Carboni · $16.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.8¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Lorenzo Carboni or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Carboni and Mackenzie McDonald in the Olbia, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Carboni' if Lorenzo Carboni advances against Mackenzie McDonald. This market will resolve to 'Mackenzie McDonald' if Mackenzie McDonald advances against Lorenzo Carboni. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Lorenzo Carboni@ 99.9¢36m ago
15m STALLED -0.8pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Lorenzo Carboni2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Lorenzo Carboni@ 58.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -15.0pp1h CONFIRMED +41.1pp
Latest book event: Mackenzie McDonald DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $7.1K → $6.0K · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Carboni; negative values favor Mackenzie McDonald. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLorenzo Carboni · $20.7K
6hLorenzo Carboni · $19.4K
24hLorenzo Carboni · $19.4K

Lorenzo Carboni price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Carboni price. Mackenzie McDonald fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Carboni probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.5¢
VWAP 24h59.9¢▲ above by 39.6pp
VWAP 7d59.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Carboni price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$11.5K
90¢
$0
85¢
$10.1K
80¢
$12.3K
75¢
$3.4K
70¢
$35.1K
65¢
$17.3K
60¢
$17.9K
55¢
$17.0K
50¢
$23.3K
45¢
$20.8K
40¢
$51
35¢
$10.6K
30¢
$30.3K
25¢
$2.2K
20¢
$4
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLorenzo Carboni$10.1K@ 85.9¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—41 minutes ago
BUYMackenzie McDonald$12.9K@ 66.5¢
Mastermoney0xbe23…b587
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cLorenzo Carboni$33.4K
BUY VWAP 61.7¢·17 fills
ferrariChampions2026Mackenzie McDonald$30.0K
BUY VWAP 9.5¢·12 fills
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseLorenzo Carboni$17.1K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·6 fills
askilikaLorenzo Carboni$13.1K
BUY VWAP 61.3¢·7 fills
0xa711…280eLorenzo Carboni$13.0K
BUY VWAP 66.1¢·8 fills
MastermoneyMackenzie McDonald$12.9K
BUY VWAP 66.5¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesMackenzie McDonald$10.7K
BUY VWAP 48.5¢·22 fills
ferrariChampions2026Lorenzo Carboni$10.3K
BUY VWAP 43.6¢·5 fills
yesmateLorenzo Carboni$10.1K
BUY VWAP 70.3¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.