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Sioux Falls: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Dominko

● quote 110 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $568.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $461.0KEvent: Sioux Falls: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Dominko

Indicative prices · 110 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Liam Draxl
0.1¢
Sebastian Dominko
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets42Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:138 trades$202.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 121 min agoofficial metadata 109 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Liam Draxl · $4.5K net·6 wallets·$10.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLLiam Draxl$42.0K@ 100¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$42.3K
tracked
$202.2K

6 verified profitable wallets: Liam Draxl · $4.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +49.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 110 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 121 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 109 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-07 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Liam Draxl and Sebastian Dominko in the Sioux Falls, originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Liam Draxl' if Liam Draxl advances against Sebastian Dominko. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Dominko' if Sebastian Dominko advances against Liam Draxl. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Liam Draxl@ 51.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -19.0pp1h INVALIDATED -21.0pp
Latest book event: Sebastian Dominko DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.3K → $102 · 16s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Liam Draxl; negative values favor Sebastian Dominko. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLiam Draxl · $0
6hSebastian Dominko · $42.3K
24hSebastian Dominko · $42.3K

Liam Draxl price VWAP

Volume-weighted Liam Draxl price. Sebastian Dominko fills are converted to the complementary Liam Draxl probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h65.75¢▲ above by 34.2pp
VWAP 7d65.75¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Liam Draxl price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$71.4K
90¢
$0
85¢
$8.7K
80¢
$7.2K
75¢
$0
70¢
$3.9K
65¢
$0
60¢
$193
55¢
$10.5K
50¢
$49.4K
45¢
$2.4K
40¢
$13.8K
35¢
$1.2K
30¢
$5.8K
25¢
$78
20¢
$1.0K
15¢
$19.9K
10¢
$5.2K
5¢
$107
0¢
$1.2K

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLLiam Draxl$19.4K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLLiam Draxl$42.0K@ 99.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLiam Draxl$29.4K@ 51.04¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstLiam Draxl$29.4K
BUY VWAP 51.04¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesSebastian Dominko$13.7K
BUY VWAP 65.23¢·21 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.