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Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?

● quote just now
Finance→Politics→Monetary PolicyCloses: 3 monthsLiquidity: $42.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $69.3KEvent: What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
52.3¢
YES
47.7¢
NO
2.2¢
Spread
anomaly38Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution72Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%
24h sample:19 trades$19.9K trackedsource coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 49s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$7.3K@ 37¢·Ahpo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$224
6h
+$1.5K
tracked
$19.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.2¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 27 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Read full resolution rules

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $43 → $1.5K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $224
6hYES · $1.5K
24hYES · $19.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.3¢
VWAP 24h38.6¢▲ above by 13.7pp
VWAP 7d38.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$1.9K
45¢
$28
40¢
$0
35¢
$18.0K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AhpoYes$13.3K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.