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Spread: Rockets (-2.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: 31 minutesLiquidity: $41.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Thunder vs. Rockets

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

77.0¢
Rockets
23.0¢
Thunder
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets63Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution61Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:138 trades$617.9K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Thunder · $60.0K net·9 wallets(2🐋)·$94.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRockets$86.9K@ 52¢·googleplay

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Rockets pressure: $177.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$177.6K
6h
+$170.5K
tracked
$617.9K

9 verified profitable wallets: Thunder · $60.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -22.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Rockets or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 00:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Rockets" if the Rockets win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Thunder". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Thunder".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 31 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Rockets" if the Rockets win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Thunder". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Thunder". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
googleplay2 linked markets · $408.6K gross
HomeRunHazard7 linked markets · $87.3K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $79.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Thunder@ 47.0¢35m ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Thunder@ 47.0¢35m ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Rockets@ 53.0¢41m ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Rockets@ 53.0¢44m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Rockets UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $906 → $236 · 35s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Rockets; negative values favor Thunder. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRockets · $177.6K
6hRockets · $170.5K
24hRockets · $186.7K

Rockets price VWAP

Volume-weighted Rockets price. Thunder fills are converted to the complementary Rockets probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current77.0¢
VWAP 24h52.38¢▲ above by 24.6pp
VWAP 7d52.38¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Rockets price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$37
55¢
$2
50¢
$593.3K
45¢
$24.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYThunder$24.9K@ 47.0¢
Painfulvoid0xd696…8a49
🐋—38 minutes ago
BUYRockets$25.0K@ 53.0¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—41 minutes ago
BUYRockets$18.3K@ 53.0¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—42 minutes ago
BUYRockets$50.3K@ 53.0¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—44 minutes ago
BUYRockets$54.3K@ 53.0¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—44 minutes ago
BUYRockets$56.0K@ 53.0¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYRockets$71.5K@ 53.0¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYRockets$86.9K@ 52.0¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYThunder$24.5K@ 49.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYThunder$12.8K@ 51.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

googleplayRockets$362.1K
BUY VWAP 52.76¢·7 fills
UpTheBluesThunder$43.3K
BUY VWAP 48.05¢·8 fills
HomeRunHazardThunder$34.6K
BUY VWAP 47.73¢·8 fills
PainfulvoidThunder$24.9K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Thunder$24.5K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
YEEES-but-whyThunder$15.4K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·3 fills
maz26Thunder$14.0K
BUY VWAP 50.91¢·2 fills
a17367162806Thunder$13.3K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·10 fills
ferrariChampions2026Rockets$11.0K
BUY VWAP 49.21¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.